(7 Deadly Scenarios A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century) PDF DOWNLOAD ç Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.

7 Deadly Scenarios A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st CenturyIra faster than it intended Remember bird flu from a couple of years ago Well It S Back Mutated Into s back mutated into form that can be EASILY TRANSMITTED FROM PERSON TO PERSON transmitted from person to person malls and other public places are deserted hospitals are flooded with the sick and dying America doesn t have nearly enough retroviral drugs even for emergency personnel and it takes time to make To make things worse the White House has just gotten word of a human flood of 8 million sick Latin Americans desperate to "Reach America They Are "America They are to reach the US Mexican border in a couple of daysThis is a very sobering and tterly fascinating look at what the future may hold It s not an attempt to predict the future but to show the sort of things that senior planners at the Pentagon are or had better be thinking about Highly recommended The scenarios the author presents are very plausible They re grounded in projections of present reality take place in the near future and are carefully thought out Anyone interested in military science geopolitics or near future economics should read this I hope the leaders of the world are thinking about possibilities like these so that they won t be caught The White Paternoster, And Other Stories unprepared if they start to happen Disclaimer I m not a military strategist or planner so my review will be solely based on my perspective as a civilian wh Then again what else do you expect from a book that Joe Lieberman praised Andrew Krepinevich s book oozes so much hatred it really makes your jaw dropsThe book propounds 7 catastrophic scenarios Five of them are caused by or directly related to Muslims While the other two aren t Krepinevich nevertheless managed to insert a few parts about radical IslamistsChapter 1 is about the implosion of Pakistan In page 31 Krepinevich mentio I pickedp this book Laid upon realizing that there was a chapter about pandemics At the time I had been out of work a week because of the current pandemic sweeping the world and was curious about the insights Krepinevich made when the book was writtenpublished versus what the situation in the world was like today Overall it was an enjoyable read I don t think I gained any fascinating insights into how the future will bethe present currently is What was most interesting besides just the hypothetical scenarios and their creativity was how much the world has changed in the time from publication to now What I mean is that there were some predictions about how the international system would function that I cannderstand why they were considered back then but they are in fact The World Rushed in uite inaccurate nowAt the end of the day it s an enjoyableick read I got it from a Essential Business Networking used bookstore so I feel no guilt about having spent a couple bucks on it Up front I ll say that I didn t much enjoy this book and I wish I hadn t paid for itThe author s premise is that accurately predicting the future is hard and because military planning lead time measures in years if we make bad guesses now about future risks we ll have the wrong tools and the wrong training in place to deal with things when they happen He proposes these of scenarios to prompt military planners to consider how things might develop and what responses they might reuire He then describes several possible future scenarios in which international crises threaten the. Trategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense the CIA the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command Krepinevich’s job is to think the nthinkable and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources an assessment of the latest global and political trends and his knowledge of contemporary military history Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack from. ,

So how many ways can the States lose in A Future Conflict Or Crisis Andrew Krepenivich Counts The Ways future conflict crisis Andrew Krepenivich counts the ways his 7 Deadly Scenarios Scenarios are basically hypothetical problems that are within the span of possibility in the real world which planners se to practice crafting policies and responses They might fall out of the blue but even an Knights of the Hill Country unexpected hypothetical will jar the reader into thinking about solutions from different angles perhaps outside the boundaries of conventional expectations Each scenario is a tidy nightmare rogue nukes being set off in the USA a new global pandemic Pakistan collapses China implodes In each instance the US has a direct or indirect interest that is being challenged But due to limited American power lack of information or thenpredictability of bold action policy makers and presidents can find themselves shackled and gagged making weak responses to strong challenges This does not mean the USA is doomed to be a pitiful giant to A House Built out of Stone uote Nixon But it does mean having an approach to crisis that can emerge from practiceHere the book calls for a solution that no longer exists Krepenevich advocates Joint Forces Command to be the champion of contingency planning gaming and scenario development But this command was just axed in a round of Pentagon budget cutting after Krepenvich s book made it to print What branch of the Pentagon steps forward to develop this mission remains to be seen 7 Deadly Scenarios is a veryick read but don t let the book s brevity deceive you Crisis management is the acid test of every but don t let the book s brevity deceive you Crisis management is the acid test of every The nightmares of Krepenevich s strategic imagination could come to pass let s hope they don t But they are food for the reader s thought and a good challenge to conventional expectations Ray GazzoMs CairnsEnglish 41010177 Deadly Scenarios7 Deadly Scenarios was written by Andrew F Krepinevich Published in 2009 Krepinevic I read this years ago back when I was in college and I m afraid it wasn t as good as I remembered The scenarios are thought provoking to be sure but the fictional citations end Alma Mater up distracting from the text as a whole because it isn t always completely clear if they re fictional or not Looking at the changing face of war in the 21st Century this book looks at several deadly scenarios that will threaten America s and the world s security in the near futureA large part of the world s oil tankers have to travel through two geographic choke points the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia and the Persian Gulf What would happen to the price of oil and the world economy if one was closed because a supertanker was sunk in the most inconvenient spot and the other was closed because Iran decided to flex its political muscleMuslim terrorists set off several black market nuclear weapons in US cities Beset with internal strife China decides to take back Taiwan once and for all They also send diesel submarines all over the world to cause lots of economic trouble for any country who considers doing something about it The Pakistani government collapses and some of its nuclear weapons find their way into the hands of the fundamentalist members of the military There s one about America dealing with a major cyberattack and one about what will happen after America withdraws from. A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the US borderMajor US cities are leveled by black market nukesChina’s growing civilnrest ignites a global showdownPakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weaponsWhat if the worst that could happen actually happens How would we respond Are we ready These are the estions that Andrew Krepinevich asks and answers in this timely and often chilling new book which describes the changing face of war in the twenty first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead As president of the Center for


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USOne problem I see immediately is that all of his scenarios are themselves dependent on a fair amount of prediction one scenario predicts a slowdown in the Chinese economy due to current demographic and environmental trends which in turn leads to conflict over Taiwan But this all assumes you re correctly anticipating how those trends will play out and how other parties will act as they do Is the scenario then anything other than one guess at how the future might play outBruce Schneier sed to run a contest on his blog where he challenged readers to come No Gentleman for Georgina (The Notorious Flynns, up with the most plausible movie plot security threat something that could potentially threaten the US but that s so implausible that it would only happen in a movie His point was that there are any number of plots or scenarios which might pose threats but since we can t possibly plan to prevent all of them dwelling too much on any one of them is pointless It would be productive to invest in things that are broadlyseful rather than things which would only avert a single specific threatOne scenario in this book deals with a deadly pandemic flu outbreak which topples the Mexican government and sends millions of panicked potentially infected refugees swarming toward the US s southern border The author bemoans the fact that neither Democrats nor Republicans ever secured the border Democrats because they wanted to offer amnesty neither Democrats nor Republicans ever secured the border Democrats because they wanted to offer amnesty illegal immigrants in exchange for their votes why this particular bit of electoral chicanery is a niuely Democratic phenomenon is not discussed and Republicans because they wanted a source of cheap labor The author also points out there aren t nearly enough Border PatrolNational Guard forces to stop a Mass Migration And Without Sufficient Supplies Of migration and without sufficient supplies of lethal armaments their only option would be the se of deadly force against narmed refugeesWhat the author doesn t point out is that any definition of securing the border which would halt an army of millions of desperate refugees would reuire an absolutely massive expenditure physical barriers surveillance options an army of Border Patrol agents While that might be a worthwhile investment when national survival is at stake it would be an insane waste of resources when a much smaller level of security is adeuate to control historical levels of migration and drug trafficking In short if you buy into the movie plot threat a massive response is warranted if you don t it "s not Relatively little is said in the text about the fact that spending on public "not Relatively little is said in the text about the fact that spending on public infrastructure disease surveillance and rapid vaccine manufacturing capacity would help reduce the risk of refugees carrying the plague into the US presumably because none of those things go pew pew and are sold by RaytheonIn short if you want to read a couple of hundred pages about a crisis probably caused by Muslims 6 of the 7 scenarios involve Muslims wanting to kill Americans against which the might of the American military is powerless then this might be the book for you but you d probably be better off getting the new Vince Flynn novel At least he doesn t pretend to be bound by reality Makes you think about scary things Useful for the value of scenarios in various life problems Got ite technical at endbackground in military kit would have been sefu. The conseuences of a timed withdrawal from Ira to the likelihood of a China on the march Krepinevich reveals the forces both overt and covert that are in play; the ambitions of world powers terrorist groups and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to takeAs riveting as a thriller 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power peers into the world of defense planning and explores US military and political strategy in the past present and likely future The result is a must read book that will trigger discussion thought and hopefully actio.

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